Thursday, February 20, 2014

NCAA Men's Basketball Power Ratings (February 20, 2014)

I went back to the drawing board with my numbers and made some adjustments. I know a lot of sharp people have Louisville at the top of their list, but it's tough for me to put them number one due to their soft schedule. There are definitely some opinions built into these numbers, but I tried not to deviate too far away from the market consensus.

Here is my top 50...

93.0 Florida, Kansas
92.5 Louisville
92.0 Duke, Syracuse
91.5 Arizona, Michigan St.*
91.0 Iowa, Creighton
90.0 Villanova, Wichita St., UCLA, Iowa St., Kentucky
89.5 Virginia, Michigan, Ohio St.
89.0 Wisconsin, Cincinnati
88.5 San Diego St., Saint Louis, Pittsburgh
88.0 North Carolina, UConn
87.5 Memphis, Oregon, Texas
87.0 VCU, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Kansas St., Stanford
86.5 Arizona St., SMU, Oklahoma St.*, Tennessee, California, Utah
86.0 New Mexico, St. John's
85.5 Massachusetts, Missouri, George Washington, West Virginia, Baylor
85.0 Marquette, Xavier
84.5 Minnesota, Nebraska, Providence

P.S. Michigan St. and Oklahoma St. have * next to them because of injuries and it is difficult for me to assess each team in their current form. 

Friday, February 14, 2014

NCAA Men's Basketball Power Ratings (February 14, 2014)

With the NFL season finished, I have decided to shift my focus towards NCAA Basketball.

I never usually agree with the AP poll or Coaches poll, primarily because I believe the voters put too much emphasis on win/loss records. I also have a problem with simply ranking teams down the list 1-25. I'm pretty sure a fifth grader can rank the top 25 teams in order based on win/loss record.

For my power ratings, I assign numerical values to each team in order to get a better estimation of how much better one team is than another. Kansas is the best team in the nation according to my ratings, but how much better are they than teams like Arizona, Florida and Syracuse? I look to answer those type of questions when constructing power ratings.

Note: Michigan St. has a * because they have injury problems and thus are tough to assign a number to at the moment. 93 is where I think they ultimately end up come March, but their current form is tough to judge. Oklahoma St. also has an asterisk because they are another team that is tough to quantify at this point in time. This team hasn't been the same since Michael Cobbins went down with a season-ending Achilles injury and I just can't get a read on them.

Here is my top 50...

93.5 Kansas
93.0 Syracuse
92.5 Arizona, Florida, Duke, Louisville
92.0 Michigan St.*
91.0 Villanova, Iowa
90.5 Kentucky, Michigan, Creighton
90.0 Virginia, Wichita St., Iowa St.
89.5 UCLA, Ohio St.
88.5 Cincinnati, San Diego St., Wisconsin, Pittsburgh
88.0 SMU, North Carolina, Saint Louis, UConn
87.5 Texas, Memphis, Oregon, Arizona St.
87.0 VCU, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Kansas St., Stanford, Utah, Oklahoma St.*
86.5 California, Tennessee
85.5 West Virginia, St. John's, Baylor, Massachusetts
85.0 George Washington, Missouri, New Mexico, Minnesota
84.5 Florida St., Georgetown, Marquette, Xavier