Sunday, January 19, 2014

Revised NFL Power Ratings (Conference Championship)

Here are the updated power ratings and projected point spreads for the Conference Championship round.

84.0 San Francisco, Seattle
83.0 Denver
80.0 New England

Projected Conference Championship Point Spreads
New England @ Denver (-4.5)
San Francisco @ Seattle (-3.5)
It looks like some sharp money came in on Seattle this morning. The line is currently painted -4 everywhere after teetering between -3 / -3.5 throughout the week. I honestly think San Francisco is the better team at the moment, but it's extremely difficult to bet against Seattle at home. However, considering this is a playoff game with a low total, I'd take the Niners if I had to pick a side.

Denver is down to -4.5 at most places on the screen. According to my ratings, Denver should be -6 at home versus New England assuming the Broncos get three points for home field. However, the coaching mismatch between Belichick and Fox warrants at least a one-point adjustment, especially considering the magnitude of the game.