Thursday, October 10, 2013

Revised NFL Power Ratings (October 10, 2013)

Here are the Week 6 NFL power ratings and projected point spreads.

86.0 Denver
84.0 Seattle
82.5 New Orleans
82.0 Green Bay
81.0 New England, San Francisco
79.5 Cincinnati
79.0 Kansas City, Indianapolis
78.5 Dallas
78.0 Detroit
77.5 Chicago, Baltimore, Houston
77.0 Miami
76.0 Tennessee (w/ Locker)
75.5 Carolina, San Diego, Atlanta
75.0 Philadelphia, Washington
74.5 Minnesota
74.0 Arizona, NYJ, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
73.0 NYG, Tampa Bay
72.5 Oakland, St. Louis
71.5 Buffalo
64.5 Jacksonville

Denver remains an 86 despite a close call in Dallas. Their offense was clicking as usual, but the defense got absolutely torched by Tony Romo. The Broncos have several key contributors missing on the defensive side of the ball and the situation needs to be monitored on a weekly basis. While I do think Denver is the best team in the league, they have played a pretty soft schedule thus far and I'm interested to see how they perform against tougher competition.

New Orleans impressed me last week with their road win at Soldier Field. The Saints traveled outside the Superdome and took care of business against a decent opponent. Chicago scored eight garbage points towards the end of the fourth quarter so the 28-20 final score is a bit misleading. New Orleans travels to Foxboro this Sunday to face New England and we will find out more about this Saints team once that game kicks off, especially if Gronk suits up.

My perception tells me San Francisco is one of the best teams in the NFL, but when I watch them play, they don't look so special. I'll admit their win against Green Bay was impressive, but at the same time they played at Candlestick and needed some assistance from the officials to come away with the victory. Kaepernick didn't complete a pass during the second or third quarter of last Sunday's game against Houston, which tells you all you need to know about the 49ers' passing game. Without Michael Crabtree or Vernon Davis in the lineup, Anquan Boldin draws constant double teams which leaves Kaepernick with nobody to throw to. The 49ers' got the run game going during the past few weeks, but their pass offense is still a question mark. San Francisco has lost five starters to injury thus far and I may have them ranked a little too high at 81.

Kansas City may be 5-0, but they have played the softest schedule in the NFL. Kansas City's opponents have a combined record of 7-18 through the first five weeks of the season. The Chiefs have an above average defense, but their offense is mediocre and Alex Smith simply does not throw the ball downfield. Kansas City's early success makes for a good storyline, but I'm still not sold on this football team.

Projected Week 6 Point Spreads
NYG @ Chicago (-8)
Detroit (-2) @ Cleveland
Pittsburgh @ NYJ (-1.5)
St. Louis @ Houston (-8)
Green Bay (-1.5) @ Baltimore
Cincinnati (-6.5) @ Buffalo
Carolina @ Minnesota (-2)
Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay (-1)
Oakland @ Kansas City (-7.5)
Tennessee @ Seattle (-11.5)
Jacksonville @ Denver (-26)
New Orleans @ New England (-2)
Arizona @ San Francisco (-9)
Washington @ Dallas (-5.5)
Indianapolis @ San Diego (PK)